XRP Weekly Newsletter #2

Hello again. As we approach the end of the first half of the year the second half is gearing up to be hugely exciting especially if you’re invested in digital assets and specifically XRP. As we’ve been discussing in the group, July and August are looking very bullish. The geopolitical and economic stage is set and now we’re just waiting for the catalyst to set off the first domino. Could it be oil? This is what Jake Claver posted on X yesterday: “Have you ever been on a plane and heard the pilot say: ‘Brace yourself for acceleration. It will be a rough ride up, but we’ll level up around 10,000 feet. Please secure your seatbelts.’ That’s how I feel now.”

Stablecoin regulation: The Genius Act passed in the Senate and now goes to a vote in Congress before landing for signature on President Trump’s desk. This is what Trump said about it: “The Senate just passed an incredible bill that is going to make America the undisputed leader in Digital Assets - nobody will do it better. Pure Genius! Digital Assets is the future and our nation is going to own it. We are talking about massive investment and big innovation. The House will hopefully move lightning fast and pass a clean Genius Act. Get is to my desk, ASAP - no delays, no add-ons. This is American brilliance at it’s best and we are going to show the world how to win with Digital Assets like never before.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said "Crypto is not a threat to the dollar...Digital assets are one of the most important phenomena in the world right now." Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse called the passing of the Genius Act “Historic.” What a contrast to the last administration who tried to kill off crypto and American innovation. 

The reverse carry trade: No movement in the reverse carry trade as both the Fed and the Bank of Japan held interest rates last week. So all eyes on the oil price following the escalation of events in Iran.

SEC v Ripple Case: a statement for Ripple on X said the following: Ripple has respectfully asked the Court to acknowledge the parties' negotiated settlement, which would relieve the burdens on both this Court's and the Second Circuit's dockets. Without disturbing the Court's substantive ruling - and while still holding Ripple accountable - the settlement would also place Ripple on more comparable footing with other industry participants whose cases were dismissed much earlier in their lifecycle as a matter of SEC discretion.

XRP ETFs are open for public comments now, which is apparently a normal step forward to approval. We could see the first approved ETF in August.

Institutional adoption is scaling quietly and impressively, from public companies holding XRP in treasury to cross-border payment integration, meanwhile the Hidden Road acquisition brings XRPL into a $3T+ institutional clearing network, making it a true backbone for settlement.

European Central Bank documents have revealed plans for a $25T integrated digital asset market. If you want to look it up Google "Digital Capital Markets Union." Also the EU is predicting a $3.7 trillion stablecoin market by 2030.

A bit of context and some common questions I get on XRP: XRP, created by Ripple, is engineered to facilitate cross-border payments, supplanting the outdated correspondent banking system. This infrastructure is already operational via Ripple’s software products such as RippleNet and On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) which they have been implementing across the infrastructure of the financial system for the last ten years. Ripple has built the rails for the new financial system. XRP is the new bullet fast train that will move value almost instantly across the whole network. The aim of Ripple is to create the new internet - the internet of value - where value moves across the internet like email. Peer to peer with instant settlement without the need of any intermediary. Welcome to blockchain technology, possible the most important and revolutionary technology in our lifetime.

XRP use case: A European business paying an Indian supplier can send euros, which are instantly converted to XRP, transferred across the XRP Ledger in seconds, and converted to rupees at the destination. This by-passes the need to hold foreign currency in different jurisdictions which free’s up capital. Also, it eliminates the need to rely on intermediary banks. This saves time, cost and mistakes (7% of all SWIFT transactions fail).

So, why could XRP’s price potentially skyrocket? For this system to scale globally, every participant - banks, fintechs, remittance providers - must hold sufficient XRP to support their daily transaction volumes. This creates genuine demand. If a bank handles $80 million daily across multiple corridors, it must hold that liquidity in XRP. Multiply this by hundreds of institutions, and the maths becomes clear. As Ripple’s adoption grows, more XRP is required in reserve globally, driving organic buying pressure. With tightening supply, the price would naturally rise. This isn’t speculation, it’s a mathematical certainty.

So, why hasn’t this occurred yet? Several factors are at play. Firstly, much of XRP’s institutional sales are executed in over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, which doesn’t generate buying pressure on public retail exchanges. Secondly, the 2020 SEC lawsuit led to delistings and dampened activity in the US, the largest crypto investor market. Thirdly, global financial systems, particularly in the US, are waiting for digital asset regulation as most institutions won’t scale XRP usage without a clear regulatory framework in place.

When do you think we will see XRP price appreciation? With regulation close and a pro-crypto administration in place, institutions are quietly accumulating XRP. These factors coupled with the shrinking supply - according to the Uphold CEO there is around 2 billion XRP available on public exchanges - means that there is a supply shock coming. We know that there are 17 ETF applications waiting for approval with the first estimated to be approved in August and when approved the institutions selling the ETF’s will have to buy XRP to hold in reserve. So my prediction is that we will see significant price appreciation to double figures in August.

No Zoom call this week as we’re going to London to have a birthday meal with our son Harry. Have a fantastic week, give me a shout if you have any questions and see you next week.

Simon X